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Nov 10, 2006 15:24:29 GMT
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Considering its reputation as the most voracious consumer economy on the globe I was most surprised to discover two interesting facts about the US car market.
The first is that sales of new cars have been declining steadily since 1998.
The second (which is obviously related to the first) is that the average age of the American “fleet” is increasing.
Doing a little more research into this (Google and Wiki basically) I discover facts which are interesting.
In a 2001 study 38.3% of vehicles in use in the USA were found to be more than 10 years old and 60.6% of vehicles were older than 7 years. I don’t have the data for the UK to hand but this is considered by a couple of sources to be a “high proportion” of older vehicles on the road compared with other countries – e.g. the UK…
According to Wiki: In 2005 the overall median age for automobiles [in the USA] was 8.9 years, a significant increase over 1990 when the median age of vehicles in operation in the US was 6.5 years and 1969 when the mean age for automobiles was 5.1 years. Of all body styles, pick-up trucks had the highest mean age (9.4 years), followed by cars with a mean age of 8.4 years and van with a mean age of 7.0 years. As SUVs are part of a relatively new consumer trend originating mostly in the 1990s, SUVs had the lowest mean age of any body style in the US (6.1 years).
So what does this tell us?
That in the USA there is more tat than ever out on the streets? Certainly my recent “fact finding mission” (or “tat spotting holiday” if you prefer) seems to provide observations in line with this. Also according to the data the mid 1980s (and 1985 in particular) are the highest ever years for sales of motor vehicles in the USA. While in the US I was amazed to see how many mid 80s cars were still in service especially compared to how few I see in the UK from that era on a day to day basis.
And again I find myself wondering what this tells us?
I find it significant that so many of the old cars I saw still on the roads are the big old V8 barges. They are sturdy long living monsters for one thing, but also they were the last of their breed. The NHTSA / EPA / CAFE “mandatory fuel economy” killed them off as much as changes in consumer tastes. By now cars were hit with additional taxes based on wheelbase, internal passenger compartment volume and MPG. Its very significant that pickups and “truck derived vehicles” were spared the brunt of these “green taxes”. It’s a wonderful example of how well meaning but badly thought out legislation can do more harm than good. As one by one the traditional 4000 lb sedans and coupes were killed off the sales of pickups rises. Need more than 2 doors? Get a crew cab, or even one of those station wagon things based on a pickup called an SUV… For those older buyers such leviathons as the Buick Roadmonster survived until 1996 and the evil twins on the Panther platform (Grand Marquis and CROWN Vic) are still selling well to this day. So the environmentalists have succeeded for the most part in getting American car buyers out of their 18 MPG sedans and into 15 MPG trucks and SUVs… Result!
The by product of this is that until very recently if you want a traditional RWD V8 (or V6) sedan or coupe you cannot buy one new unless it’s a Ford. So your only option is to buy an older car. The older V8 sedans are being kept alive and as theres nothing in the late model used market to replace them they keep on being used. Chrysler was the first to stop a gap in the market and introduced the LX series of cars and the sales figures and demand for them demonstrates that the market wants big engines and rear drive. Large RWD domestics are also about the only market in the US car industry which has growth.
So if I’m right in 10 years time then we’ll see plenty of older Chrysler 300s and Dodge Chargers on the road and a fall in the number of 1980s cars.
Does this mean that countries where there are less old cars on the road the manufacturers are better at providing the new cars that people there want to buy? Or are countries like the UK just more voraciously consumerist than the USA?
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1941 Wolseley Not Rod - 1956 Humber Hawk - 1957 Daimler Conquest - 1966 Buick LeSabre - 1968 Plymouth Sport Fury - 1968 Ford Galaxie - 1969 Ford Country Squire - 1969 Mercury Marquis - 1970 Morris Minor - 1970 Buick Skylark - 1970 Ford Galaxie - 1971 Ford Galaxie - 1976 Continental Mark IV - 1976 Ford Capri - 1994 Ford Fiesta
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Nov 10, 2006 17:58:45 GMT
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I think the UK has a much lower average vehicle age due mainly to the massive amount of consumer credit that's shouldered by UK citizens. I have no figures to back this up, however recent surveys show the UK as Europe's "personal debt capital"... that must include car finance. Perhaps when the debt bubble bursts the average UK motorist will see the benefits of keeping hold of their 8 year old car instead of trading it in for a brand new model and getting raped by the repayments / depreciation...
...one can only hope...
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Nov 10, 2006 18:03:36 GMT
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You say that but when I was in the USA they were advertising 60 months interest free credit on some makes, $10,000 cash back on Chrysler (excludes 300 series and SRT) and many other wild inducements. Including the rash promice at one dealers: "we finance absolutely anybody". Car loans 2% APR on billboards.
Maybe Americans are more sensible than Brits when it comes to getting poked up the pipehole with a spanner on credit deals.
.25 point raise in base rates.
.25 point expected February.
Nuts I have to wait to July to take another fixed term and like Yazz said with her delightful plastic population "The Only Way Is Up".
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Last Edit: Nov 10, 2006 18:04:54 GMT by akku
1941 Wolseley Not Rod - 1956 Humber Hawk - 1957 Daimler Conquest - 1966 Buick LeSabre - 1968 Plymouth Sport Fury - 1968 Ford Galaxie - 1969 Ford Country Squire - 1969 Mercury Marquis - 1970 Morris Minor - 1970 Buick Skylark - 1970 Ford Galaxie - 1971 Ford Galaxie - 1976 Continental Mark IV - 1976 Ford Capri - 1994 Ford Fiesta
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stinkwheel
Posted a lot
Doctor Of Gonzo Journalism - One of gods own proptypes, never even considered for mass production.
Posts: 2,280
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Nov 10, 2006 18:05:47 GMT
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I don't like new cars, cant afford them anyway, but the point being.................i don't like them, wouldnt buy one. Our cars are (from newest first) 1995, 1990, 1986, 1983, 1980, 1979. Whats does that say then?
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1973 Citroen Dyane 6 1980 Citroen Acadiane 1992 Citroen AX 1990 Citroen BX 1997 Citroen XM 1993 Citroen BX 1997 Citroen Xantia 1977 Citroen Ami 8 1996 Ford Escort 1989 Citroen BX 1997 Suzuki RF900 1988 Yamaha TDR250 1979 Honda CB400. 'I need less vehicles'
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Nov 10, 2006 18:10:26 GMT
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It's odd, I would have thought the USA would have been the most consumerist society on the planet... but evidently there is an element of that society that want to keep their old cars. I suppose there are other things to consider. The fact that there aren't any MOT tests in some states, dirt cheap petrol prices, a lot of the dry states must preserve older cars better... and I don't know how much road tax and insurance the average American motorist pays... maybe it's easier / cheaper to keep an old car on the road in the States? I don't know... odd... wish it was more like that over here.
Then again, I'd probably have to get an even older car in order to drive something different on the roads... ;D
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Nov 10, 2006 18:12:35 GMT
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...that brings me onto another point: What's the equivalent US "Retro" scene like? I know they have a massive rod and custom scene, but I've yet to come across many Yanks that are into (for instance) '80s tin. Not many US members on RR either...
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Nov 10, 2006 18:39:45 GMT
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80s stuff is usually either wannabee donks, wannabee lowrider, mullet look "hot rodded", or pickups.
The Mustangs and Camaros do seem to still get modded, often badly, but there are some nice 80s ones out there.
The problems they have over there are its illegal in a lot of states to remove the emission control gear, swap in a non-factory option engine if the car is emission controlled, and all tuning parts for emission era cars (1975 model and later) have to be approved by California Air Research Board and issued with an excemption number. This is an overhead in terms of paperwork and testing and the like for the aftermarket so tuning parts for late 70s through late 80s stuff can be thin on the ground. They even have a "visual inspection" where the MOT tester checks that everything appears to be stock under the hood. IE no K&N filter, no 4 barrel carb where theres not supposed to be one, etc. They have the factory stock specs for all cars listed in a big manual so they can check it out.
So few cars of that era get much modification attention. Its too much hassle, unless you live in a state which doesn't apply the rules or has excemptions. There are 70s and 80s cars modified though. PHR recently built a 1978 Camaro to emission legal specs, but they got like 400 BHP for the money you can get 500+ BHP for and thats what most people will be put off by.
Some states have a rolling 25 year excemption which means if the car was emission regulated when new but is now over 25 years old you can ditch the smog gear.
Other stuff like the Buick Grand National gets modified a lot, but a cult following and die hard enthusiasts ensured there are CARB approved mods for them and they can still pass a tailpipe sniffer at quite high BHP levels. The GN created a lot of specialists in emission legal EFI tuning back in the day who are now either big noises in Buick circles or busy working with the new generation EFI V8s like the mod Ford and GM LSx
90s and later stuff seems to be quite popular for those with the money. Many of the engines are good for big power as stock and there are legal mods to get a lot more power out of them yet. The aftermarket seems to be getting smarter with this. But the late 70s & 80s stuff is still very much the red headed step child and is usually left to be stock or modded in the "mexican style" which we would call "chavved up" over here.
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Last Edit: Nov 10, 2006 18:44:13 GMT by akku
1941 Wolseley Not Rod - 1956 Humber Hawk - 1957 Daimler Conquest - 1966 Buick LeSabre - 1968 Plymouth Sport Fury - 1968 Ford Galaxie - 1969 Ford Country Squire - 1969 Mercury Marquis - 1970 Morris Minor - 1970 Buick Skylark - 1970 Ford Galaxie - 1971 Ford Galaxie - 1976 Continental Mark IV - 1976 Ford Capri - 1994 Ford Fiesta
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Nov 10, 2006 21:40:05 GMT
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I presume that the reason more stuff survives over there (% wise not just because it's a bigger part of the world) is quite simply because of the climate in some states. e.g it's kinder to the metal! Britain despite not having horrific winters does however have a VERY damp climate ALL year round...not good for metal, hence 20 year old stuff is going to be rusting nicely. I know the east coast of America (e.g. New York) and North East is not so 'perfect' for survival of metal but remember when it becomes extremely cold again Metal cannot rot; it will surface rust but cannot physically carode when say at minus -20. Proof of this is also in Russia where much old original tin survives. I think it is our climate which stops most people from trying to run an older vehicle as a DAILY driver. Just my thought for the reason WHY
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Hirst
Posted a lot
This avatar is inaccurate, I've never shaved that closely
Posts: 3,930
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Nov 10, 2006 22:13:00 GMT
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The (in general) straight flat roads must help to keep cars "happy", must be putting a lot less strain on the car since the chassis isn't being smashed around all over the place. Same for the engine/gearbox as it gets to cruise at low rpm in top gear the vast majority of the time thanks to a combination of highway cruising, auto boxes and engines set up for endurance (300K+ mileages aren't particularly insane to have over there). Whereas we're up and down the gears all the time to cater for the roads and as a result put more wear on the car.
I think as well cars there tend to be passed on for sale more due to the more relaxed safety rules. With "unloved" cars here it just gets to the point where it isn't (assumed to be) worth the cost of fixing them up for MOT so they just get scrapped.
Another point to raise is that due to the nature of US houses, a lot more of their stuff would be in a nice warm garage!
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Some interesting assumptions Crawling around gridlocked cities isn't great for any car. And a lot of yank stuff spends a lot of time doing that as their metropolisses are aweful. They myth that American roads are all great free flowing freeways is just that. Many americans live in flats and park their cars outside. In the area where I stayed last most people park in the drive or on the garden. The idea that most americans pamper their cars in warm dry garages is based on a view of America we get from watching Desperate Houswives or other suburban idls I guess. I've seen the amount of rust you can find in a California or Florida car. Dry states my arze! I'd agree that many states have more relaxed safety rules than we do, but most of them have tougher emissions rules than we do, so you may not need £300 worth of welding for an MOT but you may need a new ECU, carb, and misc other parts for $300 to pass emissions... One thing I did notice is there were a VAST number of car parts stores, and an unbelievable number of garages and other auto services businesses compared to the UK. If I had needed a replacement or rebuilt automatic transmission in the smal town I was in I would have had a choice of a dozen places to go to. Thats just the ones I saw... There aren't the number of small garages and repair places and spares shops in the UK because we don't fix our cars. The Americans appear that they do. The other odd thing is that through the mid 80s and mid 90s the Americans were buying more cars. And its only recently that they've stopped and sales have tailed off. I wonder if a lot of the average age thing is because of people having "toys" now. Its interesting that the number of registered cars in the USA way outnumbers the number of people who hold a driving licence. It suggests that a lot of cars are being kept as colectors cars, race cars, pickups kept for towing the boat down to the creek at the weekend (and so saving miles on both it and whatever the daily drier during the week is) and guys in Northern states who have a nice car for the summer and a clunker over the winter to stop the salt rotting that new Mercedes to bits before its 3 years old... But all of this was going on before 1998 as well. Seems odd to me. Also its interesting to see that theres almost an air of desperation in the attempt to sell cars over there. All the dealers selling new cars are selling such deals as would make the market here go nuts. And yet more brands are moving into the US to chase a slice of a shrinking pie. It has been suggested this is a "natural cycle" and that in a few years the public will go mad and buy loads of new cars. We'll see. I can't believe its just because less people care for the prestige of having a new car over an few-years-old one. Although they don;t have year letters on their licence plates, the motor trade always said year letters were a great sales tool for them... Are we as a nation that shallow?
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1941 Wolseley Not Rod - 1956 Humber Hawk - 1957 Daimler Conquest - 1966 Buick LeSabre - 1968 Plymouth Sport Fury - 1968 Ford Galaxie - 1969 Ford Country Squire - 1969 Mercury Marquis - 1970 Morris Minor - 1970 Buick Skylark - 1970 Ford Galaxie - 1971 Ford Galaxie - 1976 Continental Mark IV - 1976 Ford Capri - 1994 Ford Fiesta
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Nov 11, 2006 11:16:42 GMT
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Yes! Its all on the letter when it comes to selling cars, always has been. Cars become bangers in this country when their letter has become a banger letter. The letter L is now a banger letter, the letter P is still just a cheap car letter. M and N are in no mans land at the minute. I`m basing this on the fact that a run of the mill L-reg will not fetch more than £500 no matter how nice it is, whereas a nice P-reg can still change hands for up to £1000. Other people have different ideas on what price constitutes banger money of course but you get what I mean. The yanks are free to be more concerned about mileage and condition which is how it should be.
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Last Edit: Nov 11, 2006 11:20:08 GMT by vicsmith
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Shortcut
Posted a lot
I won't be there when you cross the road, so always use the Green Cross Code.
Posts: 3,037
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Nov 11, 2006 15:38:16 GMT
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Don't forget the basic maths (or math as you americans erroneously insist on calling it). 1956, not many cars on the road, certainly not many older cars as the further back you go the fewer cars by a long shot, so the average age of the US fleet would be young. 2006 and there are many many more older cars on the road as the number of cars scrapped is far less that the number made. This means that even if the US population indulged it's love of new metal in a Pirhana style feeding frenzy of purchasing the average age of cars on the roads would still be going up.
The french govenment offered people a one off "bribe" to scrapp their old clunkers in a thinky veiled effort to boost the french auto industry, which is why you see so few clunkers on the french roads. The british govenment is currently engaged in the same thing but by stealth. Just watch as the conveniently catch older cars in with the eco-legislation.
US citizens won't (on the whole) put up with this level of interference by their central government so older cars have longer lives.
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Last Edit: Nov 11, 2006 15:39:13 GMT by Shortcut
This space available to rent. Reach literally dozens of people. Cheap rates!
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Nov 11, 2006 18:18:20 GMT
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I see what you mean about the number of older cars increasing with time naturally, but you forget about "wasteage" and the rate American drivers have accidents! Its horrific... Litterally saw at least one accident a day when I was there last.
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1941 Wolseley Not Rod - 1956 Humber Hawk - 1957 Daimler Conquest - 1966 Buick LeSabre - 1968 Plymouth Sport Fury - 1968 Ford Galaxie - 1969 Ford Country Squire - 1969 Mercury Marquis - 1970 Morris Minor - 1970 Buick Skylark - 1970 Ford Galaxie - 1971 Ford Galaxie - 1976 Continental Mark IV - 1976 Ford Capri - 1994 Ford Fiesta
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Nov 11, 2006 21:41:58 GMT
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Being from Canada and from basically the same car culture as the USA I can name three reasons why cars stay in service much longer over there.
They are cheaper to run so people who would be too poor to own and drive a car over here, can afford to do so there. Most jurisdictions over there have no MOT, no road tax, and petrol is a lot cheaper. And since poor people can't afford new cars, they drive used, older vehicles.
Cars don't depreciate as quickly over there as here. Last year I sold a 1989 Golf GTI belonging to my wife's coworker. I think it went for £325. It was clean, and well kept although I think it had a relatively short MOT. The same car in the same condition back home (Western Canada) would fetch between $2500 and $4000 I expect (£1250-£2000). I attribute this price differential to the fact that here you are faced with a yearly MOT and potentially a big repair bill every year which devalues older cars. This of course creates a downward spiral, because if you car is worth little to begin with, you aren't going spend a lot of money on major repairs. If the major repairs aren't done, then it will likely fail the next MOT which renders it completely worthless and off to the scrapyard it goes.
Lastly, in many parts of North America, the climate is conducive to old car survival. Everyone knows that the desert-like conditions in the southern USA are very kind to old sheetmetal, but even where I am from, the climate is dry and because it gets REALLY cold in winter, they don't salt the roads which is a big bonus for older cars. Basically the weather in the western half of the continent is easy on old cars. Of course it helps that since the early 1980s American cars have had excellent rustproofing. Even in rainier/saltier climates they last longer than they used to.
Drop your silly taxes, get rid of the MOT, and you'll see a lot more cars on the road here too.
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Last Edit: Nov 11, 2006 21:42:50 GMT by mrabody
1995 Range Rover 4.0 1995 BMW 320i Saloon 1989 BMW 325i Touring 1991 Mercedes 300TE-24 1991 Mercedes 190e 1970 Sunbeam Imp Sport
1966 Valiant 200 Custom 1964 Ford Fairlane 500 Station Wagon
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SkoCan
Posted a lot
Quando omni flunkus, mortati
Posts: 1,916
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MrAbody has some good points. The GTi would probably go for a little bit less, but not by much. Just about had one last summer ;D (deal fell through ) We DO salt the roads. Still see very little rust running around. Saw more out on the Wet Coast where they don't salt. Lastly, and surprisingly, we Canadians are actually are closer to Europeans and the British in our automotive buying habits than our cousins to the south. Average age and type are similar though. Tells you what we like to keep around.
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I, personally, am doing my best to keep the average age of road worthy vehicles up here in Norway ;D
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Nov 12, 2006 19:34:57 GMT
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MrAbody has some good points. The GTi would probably go for a little bit less, but not by much. Just about had one last summer ;D (deal fell through ) We DO salt the roads. Still see very little rust running around. Saw more out on the Wet Coast where they don't salt. Lastly, and surprisingly, we Canadians are actually are closer to Europeans and the British in our automotive buying habits than our cousins to the south. Average age and type are similar though. Tells you what we like to keep around. I was basing my price estimates on a quick scan I had of the Vancouver Buy and Sell They probably vary a fair depending on the local market. We don't generally salt the roads in Saskatchewan, and even if they do once it gets too cold for the salt to melt the snow, it doesn't have much effect on sheetmetal. I expect they salt in Calgary because the chinooks mean that your winter temperatures are much higher. They don't tend to salt in many parts of the BC interior (thinking of the Okanagan). Canadian car buying habits are closer to Europeans because like Europeans we have less disposable income than Americans.
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Last Edit: Nov 12, 2006 19:36:01 GMT by mrabody
1995 Range Rover 4.0 1995 BMW 320i Saloon 1989 BMW 325i Touring 1991 Mercedes 300TE-24 1991 Mercedes 190e 1970 Sunbeam Imp Sport
1966 Valiant 200 Custom 1964 Ford Fairlane 500 Station Wagon
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SkoCan
Posted a lot
Quando omni flunkus, mortati
Posts: 1,916
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Canadian car buying habits are closer to Europeans because like Europeans we have less disposable income than Americans. I like to think we're more, er, frugal
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good points about resale value. I saw a number of early/mid 80s Lincoln Town cars up for $2995 as I was looking around. I was amazed I'd thought they'd be $300 clunkers by now.
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1941 Wolseley Not Rod - 1956 Humber Hawk - 1957 Daimler Conquest - 1966 Buick LeSabre - 1968 Plymouth Sport Fury - 1968 Ford Galaxie - 1969 Ford Country Squire - 1969 Mercury Marquis - 1970 Morris Minor - 1970 Buick Skylark - 1970 Ford Galaxie - 1971 Ford Galaxie - 1976 Continental Mark IV - 1976 Ford Capri - 1994 Ford Fiesta
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Nov 13, 2006 10:39:47 GMT
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After the rain and cold at the weekend I 'm still tempted to say it's our climate that knocks our everyday old cars of the road! Even repairs can be difficult in winter ...lying under an old mini with a welder in hand with a cold wind blowing and the rain from above can try ones ability Or perhaps I'm an Utter WIMP! ;D
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