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Feb 19, 2020 14:23:25 GMT
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Didn't the Australian government pump money into Holden by way of subsidies etc? If that's the case, I'm not surprised there's something of a backlash. The thing is, give it a few years and nobody, beyond the enthusiast, will remember the name.
The average punter in the street has already long forgotten what Rover and Saab are/were, I doubt Holden will be any different and the average Australian will just head over to a Japanese manufacturer dealership instead.
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Feb 19, 2020 16:35:31 GMT
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All this talk of global density and LHD vs RHD.
What people forget is, it is manufacture dependent. Yes the market for RHD may be there and there may be just as many RHD cars as LHD, but if that particular manufacture doesn't think they can grab much of the market share with certain models they have then they won't invest.
This is why we don't get some models in the UK or we get LHD versions. The UK market is sometimes a very small percentage of that manufacturers global market share, possibly because it does not have very good market share in other RHD areas.
This may or may not have anything to do with the GM excuse with Holden but i was just trying to explain another contributing factor to the little heated discussion on page 1 of this thread 😁😁😁
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Last Edit: Feb 19, 2020 16:36:41 GMT by toast00
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Feb 20, 2020 10:17:27 GMT
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Didn't the Australian government pump money into Holden by way of subsidies etc? If that's the case, I'm not surprised there's something of a backlash. The thing is, give it a few years and nobody, beyond the enthusiast, will remember the name. The average punter in the street has already long forgotten what Rover and Saab are/were, I doubt Holden will be any different and the average Australian will just head over to a Japanese manufacturer dealership instead. This is very true. I personally have a fondness for Holden because I've always had a soft spot for Australian muscle cars and Oz car culture. Australians will have fond memories (possibly, possibly not) of life with Holdens past and families who had family members that worked for Holden will feel bitter about it. Beyond that sentimentality the consumer landscape heals over the holes left by dead brands alarmingly quickly. If something like this dies, it dies because it was no longer viable in the modern landscape, and that's because people have already switched their mindset to the more contemporary alternatives before a brand disappears. A brand gets necrosis at the edges before the centre finally dies. When Rover finally died, it was devastating to the community I grew up in. Every family had at least one family member that worked at Longbridge. We were communities that mostly existed to serve at Longbridge or Cadbury. Mine was a Cadbury family and the same thing happened to the Cadbury factory when Mondelez took over. The factory went swiftly after despite Mondelez' assurances during negotiations that it would never be closed down. In the case of Rover's demise, people were really angry. BMW cars were torched, there were protests, lots of community unrest, lots of anxiety about the future. That lasted about six months and then everybody forgot about it and moved on. In the case of the Cadbury factory, people tutted and moaned for about two minutes and then it was forgotten. Hoden will be forgotten very quickly. What's a little bit sad in these situations that the old days of the industrial entrepreneur, somebody could buy the name back and relaunch the brand. That doesn't happen anymore because it stopped being a successful strategy about 30 years ago. It's the age of the tech entrepreneur, stock market entrepreneur and the brand entrepreneur now. It's no longer viable to manufacture a small reliable brand for a local market. It has to scale instantly or it wont get off the ground. I suspect Morgan cars will finally succumb over the next three years. The necrosis has already crept into the edges of that seemingly impervious small brand. We'll all be very sad at the death of that icon. Then we'll forget about it. After all... who actually owns a Morgan?
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Feb 20, 2020 10:58:05 GMT
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The common link between Holden and Rover - and Pontiac and Oldsmobile too is that they tried to cater for a domestic market whilst competing with brands that made cars the whole world wanted to drive. Patriotism will only get you so far in business if the products aren't as good (or perceived to be) as those from other countries.
Holden may be a bit different as their geographical position made it difficult to export except to New Zealand but on the one occasion when they did try to market a model in the UK; The Morano (sold as a Vauxhall) it was hardly a roaring success. (737 registered in 2007 according to honestjohn.com)
I think you may be right about Morgan as their customer base is literally dying out. I'm not sure who buys Morgans anymore but their core business revolves around making new cars for people who like old cars, so if they shut up shop there are probably enough used ones on the market to satisfy demand.
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Feb 20, 2020 10:58:19 GMT
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I suspect Morgan cars will finally succumb over the next three years. The necrosis has already crept into the edges of that seemingly impervious small brand. We'll all be very sad at the death of that icon. Then we'll forget about it. After all... who actually owns a Morgan? What necrosis are you referring to? Morgan is an extremely successful British niche car maker, a couple of years ago they announced record profits, they're embracing new technology like electric power, composites etc. Most people won't know someone who owns a Morgan, but they also won't know someone who owns a Ferrari or a Bentley. They move in different social circles. My business is involved with cars which regularly exceed £200,000. None of my friends have the money to order such a car, but the years-long waiting list speaks for itself. There's a big difference between exclusive niche car makers, and big mainstream brands. The mainstream market has always been a bloodbath for manufacturers and we're heading towards a future where the choice is essentially either a Peugeot, a VW or a Ford. More than likely all owned by the Chinese. The exclusive, high end market is a different story however.
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Last Edit: Feb 20, 2020 10:59:15 GMT by BenzBoy
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Feb 20, 2020 11:31:01 GMT
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I suspect Morgan cars will finally succumb over the next three years. The necrosis has already crept into the edges of that seemingly impervious small brand. We'll all be very sad at the death of that icon. Then we'll forget about it. After all... who actually owns a Morgan? What necrosis are you referring to? Morgan is an extremely successful British niche car maker, a couple of years ago they announced record profits, they're embracing new technology like electric power, composites etc. Most people won't know someone who owns a Morgan, but they also won't know someone who owns a Ferrari or a Bentley. They move in different social circles. My business is involved with cars which regularly exceed £200,000. None of my friends have the money to order such a car, but the years-long waiting list speaks for itself. There's a big difference between exclusive niche car makers, and big mainstream brands. The mainstream market has always been a bloodbath for manufacturers and we're heading towards a future where the choice is essentially either a Peugeot, a VW or a Ford. More than likely all owned by the Chinese. The exclusive, high end market is a different story however. I made a huge mistake signing off with 'after all, who owns a Morgan'. I had a hunch it was an unwise statement to end on. That wasn't really my point at all. It was just a sign-off that alluded to the depth of feeling there would be amongst car fans if Morgan were to disappear. It wouldn't constitute an owner-fuelled sense of crisis on the scale of a Holden, Rover, Saab demise etc. So in that event it would be forgotten very quickly. Also, record profits are not what you look at to determine the viability of a brand believe it or not. EG Tesla generated $25 billion revenue in 2019 but it didn't make a profit it registered a loss of $860 million. It had a loss of a billion the year before. Those figures speak of huge investment int he future. Morgan bring a nice tidy little profit of about £25million a year. That's a nice corner shop business tootling along happily. Morgan sold a majority stake to an Italian VC fund last year. I don't know if you have much experience of VC funds. I do. VCs want one thing only, and it usually requires a ten year program to yield the objective. The objective is to accumulate more exit value than the value invested. That's all VCs want. They say anything they need to say to buy in, but once bought in, especially as a majority shareholder, they will restructure and re-purpose the business to put it on track to deliver against the ten year plan. To that end Morgan will need to scale up fast. No VC fund int he entire history of VC funding has ever said "Have a big chunk of my money, and just carry on as you were, it's all fine, we just want to make a donation, we don't want to interfere". That just doesn't happen. There is no business sense in that at all. Morgan have faced many years of import/export safety compliance issues limiting their export market capabilities. That was okay for Morgan. They were a privately owned business marching to their own drum. They operated within the safety margins. That's how they thrived. A niche that they didn't challenge the parameters of. Like Hobbits in the shire. Now, they wont be able to march to their own drum. They will need to scale up and comply. In scaling up and complying, they will be forced to be more conventional, more streamlined in design and manufacture processes. The VC partner will identify opportunities for shared components, find workable compromises in order to take the idea of Morgan but make it future compliant and economically scalable. At that point, Morgan must be a competitor, not a lone wolf. At that point, the VCs will rationalise the performance curve of the business and are likely to restructure around the brand value not the heritage engineering. Morgan now have targets to meet and they must meet them to secure the next round of capital funding. It's a steeple chase that gets faster as the gates get higher. "Let's use available crate engines, lets stop doing ash frames. Lets get these cars safety compliant in as many markets as we can. We can buy in the hardware to do that ("we will have to buy it in as it's too much of an investment to make Morgan air bag systems and crash detection equipment. Why invest so much time and money when we can buy it off FIAT?"). Of course, we'll need to rethink the Morgan range design, but we can use this PSA platform to achieve that. It's still a Morgan though, don't worry". At the completion of the ten year program, the VCs will be holding a brand with intangible value and they will want their earnings from investment. It could become a Chinese brand (like MG), or it will be absorbed into a large global company looking to leverage a heritage name in a new EV venture. Very little of what Morgan has been, and is today will be left standing by that point. That's the necrosis. It's got nothing at all to do with profit. Profit means sh1t when scaling a brand like this. Objective one will be to make Morgan competitive. Objective two will be to increase intangible value and sell it either piecemeal or whole to a buyer. Tesla began as an almost Morgan-like business before Elon Musk took a controlling interest in the business. It existed for about two years before he invested 30million. The two founders left shortly after and he has determined Tesla's future, which was not the future the founders anticipated. But Elon is not a Venture capitalist, he's a futurologist tech entrepreneur, engineer, industrial designer and utopian visionary. As rich as he is, he's not in it for the money but for the immortality. That's not what VCs are in it for. Ever. There is no such thing as a conscientious or ethical VC. Plenty use that as their calling card but VC is an "investment for profit" business. VCs focus on categories and they will be making tactical investments to create a unified end product from the portfolio they've created. "Morgan isn't Tesla though" yes, I know. We can get tied up in an endless tangle of whataboutism but the thread is about Holden and my actual point was that people will be sad and will then very quickly carry on with their lives driving Subaru and Ford, and Holden will quickly become a minor nostalgia point.
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Last Edit: Feb 20, 2020 12:14:50 GMT by Deleted
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Feb 20, 2020 21:12:30 GMT
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I think GM may be under estimating brand loyalty in Aus, after all the last Aussie Valiant rolled off the production line in maybe 1980 replaced by Mitsubishi Sigma's...Valiants still have a huge and loyal fan base, when Holden dropped the one ton pickup tradesmen just kept them and kept fixing them as there was nothing to compete with them. Likewise the last of the Ford Falcon wagons I suspect will hold their values.
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Feb 20, 2020 21:46:23 GMT
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Its all part of the GM restructuring. They may just use Isuzu or Chevrolet in Australia as they have a history with those brands and I assume although Aus is a world leader in pollution they'll have to join the Eco direction along with everyone else so a brand headed by awesome but eco-rude V8's is not the future.
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Needs a bigger hammer mate.......
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Feb 20, 2020 22:02:21 GMT
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Its all part of the GM restructuring. They may just use Isuzu or Chevrolet in Australia as they have a history with those brands and I assume although Aus is a world leader in pollution they'll have to join the Eco direction along with everyone else so a brand headed by awesome but eco-rude V8's is not the future. Aus is just about floating on propane, running V8s on LPG until they sort out EVs that are capable of going Interstate seems sensible, don't forget it was around 200k minimum between roadhouses sticking just to the main roads, these are all run from generators as obviously there is no mains power, I can't see them being up to the job of recharging multiple EVs simultaneously, if you live out on a property you might easily do 100k on dirt before getting to a highway the old Holden/ Aus Ford's were designed to cope with this. As an example of the distances involved we once used a full tank of fuel and 4 x 20l Jerry cans with a 2 litre Sigma between available fuel stops.
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mfrv1
Part of things
Posts: 267
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Feb 22, 2020 17:42:31 GMT
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Is it wrong that I smirked when I read that GM's chief executive is named Mary Barra, like the Ford engine?
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Feb 25, 2020 20:48:41 GMT
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Usual argument, LHD is more countries, RHD more people, because it includes countries like China What’s the betting Vauxhall’s next? China is LHD! LHD is far more common by population and countries. The RHD market globally is tiny. As for Holden, it's no surprise really. Their motoring industry has been in decline for years, with Holden being built outside Australia for a few years already now. The company isn't profitable and the market is too small for these special vehicles. Aussies supposedly hate the Korean stuff too, so won't buy badge engineered products (though will buy Kia and Hyundai with few problems), so that's the final nail in the coffin. I personally don't care, as Holdens don't really float my boat, but it's sad to see a company disappear, as per Saab years ago.
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Last Edit: Feb 25, 2020 20:53:43 GMT by mikehamid
Project - 1990 Trabant 601 Daily - 2006 Saab 93
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Not really got anything particularly helpful to add, but thought I'd chime in as the target population.
In no particular order:
LPG sounds great but you need to do a conversion which is quite costly here, yearly checks (makes sense, but doesn't appeal), and for most cars the cost/mileage argument isn't great as the cost of LPG here is curse word now.
There was a big stink when they said they weren't going to continue the commodore, but a few years on and everyone's driving an amarok or ranger anyway.
I've never understood why you would buy a luxury* commodore for 50k (statesman, Grange) when you can buy a eurobox that doesn't sound like you've just closed the lid on your Esky and comes with all the fancy extras. There's just a different level of finish for the same money.
Allegedly Australians are fiercely loyal (can't say I've ever felt particularly patriotic, although I recognise that we have it pretty good here), but we also know how to hold a grudge and if a company screws us over, be it closing a factory or stopping a favourite line if cars, it'll take a fair bit to win back that trust.
Not sure on numbers but I reckon the Koreans are giving the Japanese a fair run for their money in terms of sales!
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Feb 26, 2020 10:13:19 GMT
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The demise of Holden is due to a number of interlinking factors:
1) The GFC way back in 2007 - this put GM in to Chapter 11 bankruptcy, so all development was paused. As a result the Commodore replacement which should have appeared in 2013 didn't. Instead 2013 saw the release of the VF which was a facelifted VE. In reality that car should have come along in 2010/11. If that had happened the 2015/16 car would have been very different: I doubt it would have had a V8 and may even have been an SUV.
2) The Government stopped subsidising the auto industry. Worth noting all the local manufacturers got the same subsidy level - Holden did not get any more or less than Ford and Toyota. In fact, auto industry protection (e.g. import taxes) had been wound back for years, usually as part of one sided "free trade" agreements e.g. zero duty on cars etc imported from Thailand but Ford were slapped with huge duties on cars they exported to Thailand, making them impossible to sell.
Also worth noting the level of subsidy in Australia was the lowest per capita of any of the nations with a car industry. Everybody else supports their car industry with tax breaks etc.
3) Changing market demands: the market in Australia is hugely fragmented. The Japanese, Koreans, Chinese, Europeans all have RHD product they've already developed (i.e. they don't rely on Australian only volume) they can sell here. The volumes available for one single model are so small that it couldn't possibly be a product unique to Australia. The highest selling "car" in 2019 was the Toyota Hilux with a volume of 47,649 - even that isn't enough volume to justify a local factory.
4) GM's view that the most important markets are the US and China, both of which are LHD. Couple that with GM's desire to be a market leader in "mobility solutions" (whatever that means) and the need to spend money in that space, and the business case for RHD (which consisted of Thailand and Australia after GM sold Opel) became impossible to justify.
5) Poor product planning / lack of available new models: Captiva went on too long because there was nothing else available. When new models came along they were too late. Equinox is a bit ugly, and Acadia came too late and is too expensive for a 7 seater (roughly $20k more expensive than a 7 seat Captiva).
6) Lack of a proper exit strategy from the local Commodore: Ford had already given up on Falcon years ago and had put the development money in to Ranger - they had already started to build the truck's reputation and volume before killing Falcon. Holden didn't start focusing on Colorado until local production stopped. By then they were lumbered with a 2nd world truck (it was engineered in Brazil) whereas Ford had a 1st world truck engineered in Australia and built in Thailand.
Basically, GM lost interest in RHD a while ago, and held off closing Holden down until they'd flogged the Thailand factory to the Chinese. Holden couldn't exist without it, and it couldn't exist without Holden.
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1982 Mercedes 280TE
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olduns
Part of things
Posts: 326
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Feb 26, 2020 10:54:01 GMT
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I suspect Morgan cars will finally succumb over the next three years. The necrosis has already crept into the edges of that seemingly impervious small brand. We'll all be very sad at the death of that icon. Then we'll forget about it. After all... who actually owns a Morgan? Morgan...the 'classic' British family run car manufacturer now owned by Italian investors i'm surprised they're still using BMW engines not Italian derived ones?
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scimjim
Club Retro Rides Member
Posts: 1,503
Club RR Member Number: 8
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I suspect Morgan cars will finally succumb over the next three years. The necrosis has already crept into the edges of that seemingly impervious small brand. We'll all be very sad at the death of that icon. Then we'll forget about it. After all... who actually owns a Morgan? Morgan...the 'classic' British family run car manufacturer now owned by Italian investors i'm surprised they're still using BMW engines not Italian derived ones? I guess it’s simple economics, they’ve bought crate solutions for all post war cars in RWD form from Standard/Triumph, Ford, Rover and now BMW. The one notable exception being the roadster with mondeo/cyclone 3.7L V6 and Getrag box which I imagine has a huge cost addition?
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Jader1973 makes some great points. #2 & 3 combined to reduce the cost of small Euro sedans that many jumped to instead of upper trim or long wheelbase Holdens, while C-segment cars grew in size and capability to become a viable alternative to a Commodore as basic transport especially when fuel prices rose.
I'd also add:
- Holden had a couple of tries of getting the Commodore into the North American market, even built over there to create scale for the platform, but the VE Commodore program was cancelled late in the development cycle. At that point the AUD$billion they'd invested was a massive overspend so anything that wasn't needed in finalising the car for market (eg weight optimisation) was stopped.
- The VE continued growth in size of the Commodore and was arguably too large - didn't sell as well as the previous generation apart from a first-year spurt, before the GFC or any inkling the car was in trouble.
- The shift to SUVs is something Holden really neglected. They had the Isuzu based Jackeroo from the 80s to 2002 (by which time it was ancient and not selling well), Frontera in tiny numbers then the "Craptiva", which relates to...
- Burned many people and lost many sales by switching from Astra/Corsa etc (which weren't perfect either) to Daewoo-based cars in 2005. This was largely in reaction to European sourced cars becoming less competitive.
- GFC also delayed the Colorado pickup by a couple of years, and probably made the end result less competitive.
- Exports were taken back to North America to look after the mothership, eg the largest market Middle East in 2011. Pontiac G8 and especially Chevrolet SS were small potatoes by comparison.
- Customer service from dealers as well as head office (for warranty) was an issue for years, and Commodore had more than its fair share of issues over the years.
After the end of the Commodore they have made some poor choices too. I've been driving past a Holden dealership that has closed and is now a Mitsubishi dealer - they are #4 selling brand in the country.
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