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You could be right - the predictions could be well be on target and they may well exceed any current projection - However everyone that I deal with on a business prospective is currently doing quite well - even the ones that have staff currently on furlough are seeing a full return to business in the non too distant future - I don't deal with a huge amount of businesses but enough to obtain a clear picture of what's happening out there rather than listening or reading the over hyped media circus - sadly not all businesses will survive but you will be surprised at just how robust the market can be. In my own case if anything its bolstered the business - classic / retro owners in the main have decided that life is too short to sit on money that's doing nothing in a bank account and spend on things that make them happy - I haven't had one future or potential restoration booking request that they would prefer to postpone their planned vehicle restoration and sell the vehicle rather than go ahead and expend the thousands of pounds that it will cost to return the vehicle to the road - I've had client deliver a car for a job that was likely to cost several hundred and request that the car gets retrimmed at the same - a cost of several thousand Then I have a good friend & fellow Jowett owner that I restored this for a few years ago Its a really nice and very capable Jowett Jupiter but it was his 73rd birthday on Wednesday and he decided to find a better a use for his money that was sat in the bank so he went & purchased one of these - Aston Martin V12 Vanquish Convertible - probably spent the same amount of money that his Jupiter is worth I realise its not all rosy out there but not all doom & gloom either - if you are in the market for new modern motor there is no doubt that you will be able to choose from some pretty unrepeatable deals - whilst I can see demand & prices rising for the £5k ish clean & reliable motor driven by others that have to downgrade from newer cars or opt out of lease deals - classic wise there is no let up - strong demand for cars at online auctions is being met with fair prices paid / reserves being met & healthy % rates of the sale stock being made As I say, I feel we're at the precipice about to start the descent and things will look very much bleaker in 12 months time. I think this depression will snowball over the next 12 or 18 months, perhaps longer. I truly hope things don't pan out the way I think they're about to but I feel a certain inevitability about it. Lovely resto! If you're comfortably off, perhaps retired, then the next couple of years should provide an opportunity to invest in dream cars which might previously have been out of reach. And Yes, if you're in the market for a new car you could probably get the sales manager to nibble the chewing gum off the soles of your shoes before you negotiate a discount.
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Last Edit: Jun 6, 2020 17:50:36 GMT by MkX
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I think that's an absolute worst case scenario where competing interests all collapse - I think it's unlikely you have inflation and deflation at the same time like you suggest. TL:DR - the world economy is in a bit of a state, there's more than COVID at play, there's too much uncertainty as to how health/economics/politics pans out to be able to forecast reliably. Of course, I have already mentioned some of the forecasts are worst case scenarios. Obviously you can't have deflation and inflation at the same time, the 'whipsaw effect' is where the price of global commodities slump, (e.g. crude oil in recent months), causing systemic deflation and weak trading. Usually when state banks start printing money to attempt stimulate the economy and cover increased expenditure it has often provoked inflation which spirals. One of the best examples is during the inter-war years in Germany when a man took a wheelbarrow to his local bakers to attempt to purchase a loaf of bread, it was heaped with bundles of million Reichsmark banknotes. He left this outside the store while he unsuccessfully tried to negotiate with the baker. He came back outside to find someone had stolen his wheelbarrow - but only after tipping his worthless banknotes into the road. Yes there will be safeguards in place but this situation is going to be a new lesson in what's needed in the future. One of the safest bets for investment, properly stored and handled, is vintage wine. It consistently outstrips gold and property by a considerable margin. And, of course, the whole situation is like string theory, with unlimited variables there are any number of potential outcomes. Most of them, it has to be said, not too good.
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A thorough analysis albeit I would also throw into the mix the delivery and production of a vaccine, and how fast we can get it out to people. That will obviously be a major factor in how deep this economic disaster is. The problem is we don't yet know if a vaccine is possible. Early research suggests immunity against COVID-19 only lasts for a period of 3 or 4 months, will we need to be vaccinated 3 or 4 times a year?
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Huge car price crash, is it actually coming? Yes of course it is, you’d have to be very naïve to think otherwise but perhaps more of a slide than a crash.
6 weeks ago The Independent Office for Budget Responsibility projected that the economy could shrink by 35 per cent if the Covid-19 lockdown were to continue for three months. The retraction would be the biggest slump in a single quarter since 1720, when the catastrophic shares crash known as the South Sea Bubble rocked the nation. The WTO predicts that global trade will be cut by a third. The world is on track for a new Great Depression*. The WorldBank estimates COVID-19 will push 49,000,000 people into extreme poverty during 2020. The International Monetary Fund predicts economic growth of -3% in 2020 meaning the Great Lockdown is the worst recession since the Great Depression. The OECD outlines the fact that few sectors will escape the impact of reduced demand for goods and commodities globally. The Centre for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School have projected that the potential global cost could be as much as £64,740,000,000,000.00 (Trillion). Cost to the UK - as much as £1,940,000,000,000.00 (Trillion). Respected Economists modelling a worst case scenario predict economies will not return to pre-crisis levels until 2023 with 2020 being the worst recession on record. Pension funds may take a big hit so pensioners incomes would be effected. Banks may fail. Whipsaw effect: initial deflation, (no good for businesses), eventually gives way to inflation & hyper-inflation as governments print money to cover their own spending and stimulate the economy. World Economics Association argue that globalisation as we know it may have come to an end, after the pandemic subsides we'll be faced with various trade wars. Trade wars often spawn real wars, even world wars. China is already making thinly veiled threats.
*Depressions are characterised by their length, by abnormally large increases in unemployment, falls in the availability of credit (often due to some form of banking or financial crisis), shrinking output as buyers dry up and suppliers cut back on production and investment, more bankruptcies including sovereign debt defaults, significantly reduced amounts of trade and commerce (especially international trade), as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations (often due to currency devaluations). Price deflation, financial crises, stock market crash, and bank failures are also common elements of a depression that do not normally occur during a recession.
Translating this into an understandable picture: Lots of businesses, big and small won’t weather the lockdown. Lots more businesses who have staff on furlough will make these people redundant when they’re expected to contribute towards their wages. They’ve got no income, don’t want to borrow against zero income and have no choice. Lots more businesses will founder and fail in the months after lockdown lifts; restaurants, pubs, hotels who need high occupancy levels to survive will be running on a fraction of their original custom due to social distancing requirements also because many former customers are now unemployed they no longer patronise them. The housing market will go into a huge slump, less building means more tradesmen unemployed. People won’t have the money to spend on big money items like new or nearly new cars so dealerships will go to the wall, car factories will go on short time or close and this will feed back into the supply chain which will see lots more businesses going under and people claiming unemployment benefit or managing on reduced salaries. Youngsters or even middle-aged who’d normally hold their begging bowl out to the Bank of Mum & Dad can’t do so because Dad’s private pension fund went belly up. Businesses will look to cut employee salaries, we’re already seeing this with BA. Millions of people who were previously net contributors will be reliant upon state aid. Inflation or hyper-inflation will mean that those with the least to spend will have to make their pennies go much further. As these cash-strapped millions ‘make do and mend’ they don’t buy new white goods or furnishings or clothes or eat out resulting in more businesses failing which puts even more on the dole. Many will have their homes repossessed or be evicted, homelessness will spiral. This will drive acquisitive crime and substance abuse.
So, overall, the government will have a drastically reduced revenue much increased expenditure with vastly increased debt and fresh borrowing. This debt will take generations to pay off, (we’ve only recently finished paying for WW2!)
Then we have to factor in the BREXIT issue. I’m a Brexiteer, when I voted to leave the EU I did so in the belief it would have a significant impact upon the UK economy which would last a generation but that we would come out the other side in a better place. The horrendous bungling of the negotiations process and the EU's intransigence makes a no deal Brexit more likely which will impact exports, imports, access to medications, etc. which all add to the final bill to be paid. I think it’s likely on the other side of Brexit we’ll see fresh fishing wars which will mean much more has to be spent on protecting our waters.
The economic impact is only just starting to be felt. We’re at the top of the abyss just starting to slide in. We have a long way to fall and a very long way to climb out the other side. Just because yesterday’s auction prices were still buoyant is no hope for blind optimism.
This will effect people on all rungs of the social ladder; Billionaires like Branson are already losing businesses. Many millionaire or multi-millionaire owners or directors of SMEs will find themselves bankrupt. Many stock market investors will lose everything. The cherished E-Type or Dino in the garage will be the first thing sold on a saturated and suppressed classics market to help keep the wolf from the door, this at a time when few will want to invest in such frivolities. The former factory worker might have to let go of his treasured RS at a fraction of its former value just to put food in front of his kids. One of the few growth areas, Bailiffs will be in overdrive throwing thousands more classics and older luxury automobiles into a flooded sluggish market.
What takes a hit in a recession or depression? Property, cars, classics, stocks & shares, antiques, cash, etc.
Prices won’t plummet, they’ll slide, and slide, and slide, and slide some more. When the depression is over, it will take a very long time for them recover. What your classic was worth in 2019 is what it will be worth in 2035 if you look after it.
Just my own glass half empty belief, sorry if I’ve depressed anyone!
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Last Edit: Jun 6, 2020 14:27:07 GMT by MkX
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Austin Allegro estate. Herts. £3,350.00 1975. Low mileage. 1.3 litre. Recommissioned after being laid up for years. Cool, practical & rare as hen's gnashers. Bugle Buggy project. Somerset. £2K 1972. Needs work. Could be lots of fun!
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This is up on Ebay now at £9995 He's also got one of the Borgwards on with a hefty mark up. I've flagged up stuff with this vendor before as he has some really interesting cars and not top dollar. He's got a Chrysler New Yorker on his stock currently which I'm rather drawn to. www.ebay.co.uk/sch/hill_farm_automotives/m.html?item=333615760013
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Last Edit: Jun 5, 2020 21:28:17 GMT by MkX
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Love the pictures, does anyone know where I can get a towbar for a MK2 jag? When ordering a Mk II new you had the option of selecting a towbar as an extra, I understand it was a Witter towbar. Although Witter are still going they no longer stock or produce this item. You'll probably have a heck of a job getting an original / used part. www.scparts.co.uk/sc_en/towbar-1-204474.htmlIf you don't fancy parting with £400.00, this is a photo of a towbar (? possibly aftermarket ?) as fitted by the dealer in Australia when the car was new; It doesn't look as though it would be a hugely difficult component to fabricate for someone with the skills. If you look at the angles of the brackets and the underside of a Mk II tyrewell you can see how it was fixed.
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Last Edit: Jun 5, 2020 16:41:25 GMT by MkX
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Good find! These came in 2000, 2300, 2600 & 3500 petrol or 2400 Diesel. A lot of police forces used the 2600, it was rumoured that while they were re-hashing the Triumph inline 6 for use in the SD1 the boffins had to tone down the performance of the 2600 because it was too close to equalling the 3500. 43 years ago your SD1 2600 would take you from 0-60 in 10 seconds and it could brush 120mph on the autobahn. My uncle had a 2600, it was a very comfortable ride, had a bit of a turn of speed when needed and more than enough power to effortlessly tow something like a large caravan. As these became older cars the legendary V8 example was most sought after and so not many of the smaller engined cars have survived which will increasingly add rarity value.
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Last Edit: Jun 5, 2020 10:46:46 GMT by MkX
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I love Airfix! Seriously, that is a very impressive photo portfolio for an ad! No doubts about what's for sale.
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That's a real beaut! Wafty barge or rocket-ship depending on your mood. I imagine when that was new you could have bought 3 houses in the Welsh valleys for the same money. With the insurance group being 49 you'd definitely need classic insurance! SPECS
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Some additional opinions:- Royal & Sun Alliance; I had a dippy blonde* drive into the side of my Aerodeck a few years back as she didn't understand the junction priorities. All the repairs were going to be at her expense but, as she was initially contesting liability, and I needed the car I had it repaired by my insurer. Their approved repairer botched the job, (Griffin Mill @ Upper Boat), R&SA stonewalled my complaints and I had to get an independent engineer's report and take it up with the Insurance Ombudsman which dragged on for about 18 months before they were required to compensate me. They were horrendous to deal with. I would suggest you avoid them like COVID-19! (* She nearly T-boned me on the same junction on further occasions as she hadn't learned from the first shunt).
Carol Nash; my Dad used them for a few years for his classics. Every renewal they'd send out his quote with half the details incorrect and the premium loaded by about 25%, he'd usually have to make half a dozen increasingly irate calls talking to morons before they set things somewhere near right.
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Last Edit: Jun 2, 2020 15:48:09 GMT by MkX
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I know this site has a preferred insurer but they haven’t been able to quote me sensible prices I'm surprised, I put my Dad onto Classicline and I believe he now has 3 classics & his (20yr old) daily insured with them now, (and he's as tight as the proverbial gnat's chuff!)
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Just a suggestion: probably best to start off in the 'What's it worth?' section, (with pics). This will probably be taken down by mods anyway as you haven't put price & location in the title.
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May 30, 2020 16:27:05 GMT
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That horse wants it!
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Mk2 RS2000 finished in black. Very solid car, real nice interior, fresh/ perfect paint/ bodywork. Fully re built engine, all new brakes and suspension. Very original car and shell, but engine and suspension have all been upgraded and modified etc. Needs engine running in and few loose ends/ snags tiding up. Whats it worth as is, or worth once turned into a concourse example?... Cheers Pics? Whilst not described as ' concours' I think most of us would describe this as such; forum.retro-rides.org/thread/214161/show-winning-rs2000-custom-39995
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Last Edit: May 30, 2020 7:26:42 GMT by MkX
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