smart
Part of things
Posts: 134
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Electric cars are the latest craze and the whole world seems to be looking at them through rose tinted glasses as if they are the answer to all our problems
Regardless of whether you feel they are the answer or not I'm interested in what they mean for the rest of us in years to come who will still run cars with combustion engines?
Assuming in the next decade and beyond Electric cars start to make up the majority of new car sales
Fuel - Will the price shoot up as oil companies start to lose revenue made from petrol and diesel sales or will it be cheaper as demand goes down?
Tax - As the government starts to lose billions from fuel tax I'm assuming they will try to tax electric cars by the amount of electricity they use and the rest of us for killing the planet with our emissions?
Parts and consumables - Will the cost of engine oil change along with other ICE service parts?
whats your thoughts people?
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1998 Rover 400 Derv
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Now this is dangerous close to the modern car stuff I was talking about being a bit fed up of seeing so much. However I do feel this is a valid subject (as long as it is approached in a reasonable manner). Interestingly I was in an ESG conference earlier and one of the futurists point out that in terms of investment we're basically past peak fossil fuels. The question is now what the rate of change is (they were of the opinion it would be exponential in terms of electric cars and the move to sustainable energy, but those exponential bets are right as often as the caution 10% growth people, ie occasionally). Personally I think we'll see a steady growth in electric cars as the prices improve for consumers and the tax/cost of ownership of ICE cars goes up. The question for the future is availability of petrol/diesel and the cost thereof. Given that we're looking at some kind of L shape recovery financially now I think it is going to be hard for people to justify the cost of a new car in the next 4 years or so (from current economic recovery forecasts), so where does that leave us with the 2030 new cars are only electric? The time frame for affordability has reduced from ten years to six pretty much. Also there is the total crash in the car market over the last year (and likely to continue for a while) which is strangling development budgets as well. I think the whole market around cars is set for a change, but it may not be in the direction that the government or car manufacturers hope. There is a world in which car ownership totally collapses, the majority of cars are effectively taxis (self driven like ZipCars, or self driven by AI), the volume of actual cars on the road becomes a lot smaller, a lot of scrap (so maybe a glut of parts, driving costs down). Still doesn't answer what will happen to fuel prices though.
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smart
Part of things
Posts: 134
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Now this is dangerous close to the modern car stuff I was talking about being a bit fed up of seeing so much. However I do feel this is a valid subject (as long as it is approached in a reasonable manner). Sorry I meant what does it mean for us with retro cars but didn't have enough characters available in the title!
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1998 Rover 400 Derv
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vanpeebles
Part of things
I am eastbound in pursuit of a white Lamborghini, this is not a recording.
Posts: 978
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If we are past peak fossil fuels, how are they going to make them? I've not seen an electric car yet that's not entirely made from petrochemicals.
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cb11acd
Part of things
Posts: 132
Club RR Member Number: 122
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And what about autonomous cars! - maybe for another discussion...
I have worked in the area of connected, autonomous, electrified cars for a while now and it isn't going away. Electric cars are here to stay.
I see classic car ownership a lot like owning a horse. Reserved for the wealthy or passionate and to be only used occasionally. Perhaps fuel will be delivered by the gallon for you to use on your weekend drive (and will cost a lot) but perhaps will be a bio-fuel to reduce carbon emmissions.
Tax will be done by the mile I expect using the network of ANPR cameras or GPS. for autonomy to work a lot more sensors by the roadside will be addedd and perhaps these can be used.
New car wise, Electric cars will be the same price as the equivilent ICE car by 2025/26. After that electric will be cheaper for new car buyers. by 2030 there will be plenty of second hand (decent) electric runabouts. The current electric cars that will then be 10+ years old will be perfect to gut and put inside classics that never had engines that they deserved.
With my classic car owner hat on, the threat of autonomy outweighs the thread of electric for classic car owners imo.
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duncanmartin
Club Retro Rides Member
Out of retro ownership
Posts: 1,320
Club RR Member Number: 70
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On new cars, from 2030 they cannot be ICE only. This means that they can still be a mild hybrid, and so still dependant on petrol/diesel. Whether the EV ecosystem will have come far enough for hybrids to be desirable is harder to say. With regard to taxation, I think EV takeup will result in a move towards road pricing. The fallout of taxing domestic electricity at a rate that would fill the gap left by fuel tax would be too great, and taxing public charging would be the worst of all worlds from the gov't perspective - there would be no incentive (for the private providers) to improve the charging infrastructure and EVs would be viewed as reserved for those with private charging. I don't think they can just fill the gap with taxation from other sources, so a black-box approach might be the neatest solution (if they can get around the big brother issues). I don't think this will have a big impact on classic/retro car usage in any way.
There are going to be significant impacts across the whole of the motor industry - not just petrol stations (though they can reconfigure the business model and do more groceries and electricity), independent garages and motor factors are going to have to adapt to servicing and providing a different sort of service, the AA and their competitors/subcontractors are going to need to modify their fleets, and tuning/modification firms are going to have to change too. Whether this leads to the loss of the local independent garage is hard to say - if the manufacturers take a leaf out of Tesla's book and go internet only then you could end up with EV certified local garages getting a lot more business than today. It might hurt the sort of back street place that can fix an old car cheaply, and might drive out a lot of the older mechanics who know how to tune carbs properly!
I don't think we're going to see autonomous cars by 2030, though when they do come I think it may end up making the idea of controlling your own car antiquated and that could really put a crimp in the ability to use retro/classic cars. So many fewer people who want/need to learn to drive cannot be good for the hobby.
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If we are past peak fossil fuels, how are they going to make them? I've not seen an electric car yet that's not entirely made from petrochemicals. Ah no no that isn't what I said, peak fossil fuel investment is different to peak fossil fuels.
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I'm looking forward to it personally. Hopefully they'll be able to design stuff that looks different seeing as it doesn't need big openings at the front for a massive radiator, large engine etc. I'd drive the motoring equivalent of a borg cube.
Lets have some fun with synthesised noise, make your car sound like the Jetsons. That E-Lander that Jonny Smith did a video sounded interesting, but that was the whining of the differentials and transfer box as opposed to the sound of the electric motor.
There was a comment about them being compared to white goods instead of something to treasure which I think is a valid point. People don't really care about cars anymore. "Millenials" or whatever are not interested and see them just as a mode of transport as opposed to anything with a soul. No different to an E-Scooter but you don't get wet. I know that's a bit of a sweeping statement and doesn't cover everyone in that demographic but already moderns are viewed as disposable and people are more content with borrowing cars that they couldn't afford to buy and give it back for something new in 3-5 years. The motoring equivalent of a smartphone.
The prices will come down and for the vast majority of the population if you stick a VW Golf and a VW ID next to each other at the exact same price/spec but one is electric I can guarantee that they will pick the electric one every time.
Actually, I wonder if we'd start seeing cars on contract like a smartphone. £xxx per month with insurance and however many miles included, the onboard systems in the car reporting back mileage and speed to the mothership and you get billed accordingly for exceeding the usage allowance, or fined for speeding without the need for cameras.
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vulgalour
Club Retro Rides Member
Posts: 7,075
Club RR Member Number: 146
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Personally I'm hoping it means we get more affordable electric car motors and running gear to stick into our older ICE vehicles. Of the obstacles to me doing this with my own, the biggest is cost. The second biggest is the technical side of it since I've no idea how you'd do it safely, and the third is the legal side of it with insurance and whatnot. There are companies offering electric classic conversions already, so it must be possible to answer the concerns.
We'll likely not see the end of ICE, there'll be some sort of phasing out. As history will prove with many technologies, when a new thing comes out the old thing doesn't just go away, e-mail didn't instantly kill letters, for example, and new electric cars isn't going to kill old fossil ones. At least not immediately.
Personally I'd like to see improvements in public transport through the use of more affordable and sustainable energies so we can go back to enjoying our private cars as just that, something we use sparingly for fun, letting public transport options bear the burden of commuting etc.
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Awesome webbers and turbos and lumpy cams and noisy exhausts make me tick. My daily doesnt make me tick. Its near silent. If my Cube was Electric powered I wouldnt feel any differently about it, and I really like the idea of electric conversions in classic since I saw a feature on a Citroen DS and it made it all make sense. Cars with crazy engines will always exist for fun, but gradualy i can see the numbers of fossil fuel cars going down and down, say over the next ten years, but by that point I don't think we will be talking about electric cars, I cant help but think that something else will come along that will make electric power seem antiquated.
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norm75
Part of things
Posts: 658
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According to Polestar CEO it takes 24 tonnes of CO2e to make a polestar 2, and 14 tonnes to make a Volvo XC40 on which the 2 is based. Using electric sourced from wing turbine alone the polestar needs to travel 30k to be at the same carbon footprint as the Volvo. EU standard electric source that increases to 50k. World standard electric source again an increase to 70k.
So buying an electric car, and running it for say 3 years at 10k a year does not make it a green option
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I don’t see electric cars being cheaper for us consumers to run long term. Electricity demand is going to skyrocket and the price will match it. How often do we all get emails from providers saying that our bills are going up as the wholesale cost of electricity has gone up but at the same time the gas cost has reduced? This will hit even no driving households hard. I agree that the tax schemes with probably end up priced per mile.
While we are still in this transitionary phase the government will no doubt hike the fuel duty to cover lost revenue and then ‘forget’ to take it back down when new road pricing schemes are introduced.
Subsequently fuel will stay a highly taxed commodity that we will probably have to get specially delivered. I keep getting the feeling I should be stockpiling lpg powered cars! They’ll make up a small enough slice of the vehicles on the road that they might fly under the radar.
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Last Edit: Oct 6, 2020 16:49:28 GMT by sarkie83
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stealthstylz
Club Retro Rides Member
Posts: 14,829
Club RR Member Number: 174
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I've kept a couple of chuggy old diesels around just incase. They might make fuel expensive or unobtainable but they won't stop people frying things or planes flying lol.
I've also got a twisted dream of all cars on the road been autonomous then doing a Demolition Man and ragging down the middle of the road in a normal car and watch all the autonomous ones swerve/stop to avoid it like Moses parting the sea.
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Speedhunters have done two articles this year on retrofitting a battery and motor into a mustang and old six series.
Looks like a load of work and then you'll still have to make your own brum brum noise and exhaust smells.
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Speedhunters have done two articles this year on retrofitting a battery and motor into a mustang and old six series. Looks like a load of work and then you'll still have to make your own brum brum noise and exhaust smells. And you've torn out what makes a 6er a BMW, it's 6cyl heart. Anyone who thinks that plonking in an electric drivetrain doesn't fundamentally change the feel, dynamics or character of a car, isn't interested in cars.
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norm75
Part of things
Posts: 658
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Speedhunters have done two articles this year on retrofitting a battery and motor into a mustang and old six series. Looks like a load of work and then you'll still have to make your own brum brum noise and exhaust smells. And you've torn out what makes a 6er a BMW, it's 6cyl heart. Anyone who thinks that plonking in an electric drivetrain doesn't fundamentally change the feel, dynamics or character of a car, isn't interested in cars. Agree with that. BMW used to make the z4 in 6 cylinder flavour. I was loaned a new z4 with 4 cylinder turbo, and even that felt like it was the wrong power train for the car.
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According to Polestar CEO it takes 24 tonnes of CO2e to make a polestar 2, and 14 tonnes to make a Volvo XC40 on which the 2 is based. Using electric sourced from wing turbine alone the polestar needs to travel 30k to be at the same carbon footprint as the Volvo. EU standard electric source that increases to 50k. World standard electric source again an increase to 70k. So buying an electric car, and running it for say 3 years at 10k a year does not make it a green option I read that the othe day too. What it means is that any Polestar 2 that gets to over 70k miles is now at a lower level of CO2 than its XC40 equivalent (regardless of it is 1 owner or 20 owners). Also that number will come down as electricity generation changes and battery technology shifts. Still a £55k car though, so I'm not buying one. I'm interested in what will happen with Hydrogen fuel cell tech as that looked like it would be interesting at one point. Has anyone engine swapped a hybrid drive train into something retro? I only see people going full electric.
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Dez
Club Retro Rides Member
And I won't sit down. And I won't shut up. And most of all I will not grow up.
Posts: 11,712
Club RR Member Number: 34
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According to Polestar CEO it takes 24 tonnes of CO2e to make a polestar 2, and 14 tonnes to make a Volvo XC40 on which the 2 is based. Using electric sourced from wing turbine alone the polestar needs to travel 30k to be at the same carbon footprint as the Volvo. EU standard electric source that increases to 50k. World standard electric source again an increase to 70k. So buying an electric car, and running it for say 3 years at 10k a year does not make it a green option I read that the othe day too. What it means is that any Polestar 2 that gets to over 70k miles is now at a lower level of CO2 than its XC40 equivalent (regardless of it is 1 owner or 20 owners). Also that number will come down as electricity generation changes and battery technology shifts. Still a £55k car though, so I'm not buying one. I'm interested in what will happen with Hydrogen fuel cell tech as that looked like it would be interesting at one point. Has anyone engine swapped a hybrid drive train into something retro? I only see people going full electric. That’s fairly shocking, And shows that the drive for electric cars isn’t really about environmental concerns. The average yearly mileage for a uk car is not much over 7k now, last time I checked. So the car isn’t actually going to be any better over a 10yr life cycle- the life cycle of the batteries if not the whole car.
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norm75
Part of things
Posts: 658
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According to Polestar CEO it takes 24 tonnes of CO2e to make a polestar 2, and 14 tonnes to make a Volvo XC40 on which the 2 is based. Using electric sourced from wing turbine alone the polestar needs to travel 30k to be at the same carbon footprint as the Volvo. EU standard electric source that increases to 50k. World standard electric source again an increase to 70k. So buying an electric car, and running it for say 3 years at 10k a year does not make it a green option I read that the othe day too. What it means is that any Polestar 2 that gets to over 70k miles is now at a lower level of CO2 than its XC40 equivalent (regardless of it is 1 owner or 20 owners). Also that number will come down as electricity generation changes and battery technology shifts. Still a £55k car though, so I'm not buying one. I'm interested in what will happen with Hydrogen fuel cell tech as that looked like it would be interesting at one point. Has anyone engine swapped a hybrid drive train into something retro? I only see people going full electric. Yes, get your point but there will be many an owner of an electric vehicle that will keep it for a few years and not do many miles but will have a higher opinion of themselves because they are being 'green'. From what I gather it will be the commercial sector, lorrys and such that will have to go down the hydrogen route. Battery power just won't work for their mileage.
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qwerty
Club Retro Rides Member
Posts: 2,409
Club RR Member Number: 52
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I'm interested in what will happen with Hydrogen fuel cell tech as that looked like it would be interesting at one point. This also greatly interests me. Surely hydrogen technology is the way forward. Especially as in theory all petrol powered ICE cars could be converted. I have nothing against Electric cars and if the range was higher I would probably have one, but more than likely I would lease one rather than buy one. It seems that is the way new car ownership is going. Tom
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