duncanmartin
Club Retro Rides Member
Out of retro ownership
Posts: 1,320
Club RR Member Number: 70
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There are interesting rumours floating around of scrappage schemes if you buy an EV. £6k (assuming the dealer/manufacturer doesn't change their price structure) would bring many EVs down to prices that would normally be realistic. A SEAT Mii EV is £17k - take 6 grand off and it looks like an incredibly cheap second car (range/size too little for a main car for most). One assumes that it's going to be for a certain age of car (last time it was over 10 years old), and it has to have an MOT. This article shows that manufacturers are already offering similar deals with big discounts (not just for EVs): www.whatcar.com/news/scrappage-scheme-latest-deals-and-offers/n15860Is this going to wipe out a big chunk of the future retro setup like the last one did? And will it put an artificial floor on the value of an MOT'd older car? Demand for cheap motoring was likely to go up as people avoided public transport, adding this on top might make finding interesting cars to enjoy bangernomics really difficult.
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I'm not saying that a new car/crappage doesn't work for some but I certainly wouldn't chop my 20 year old car in, as even a base spec new car is not affordable to me (especially if it's an EV). My car has 6cyl, a decent chunk of BHP, looks great, is comfy and has a good spec even by today's standards. To swap over to a povvo spec 85bhp Dacia Sandero isn't a result any way you look at it, particularly as my car belongs to me, not a finance company and even with higher tax, fuel and possibly maintenance costs, represents better value for money.
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duncanmartin
Club Retro Rides Member
Out of retro ownership
Posts: 1,320
Club RR Member Number: 70
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I can't imagine anyone on here is jumping at the chance to scrap their retro for an EV. Sadly, we are not in the majority. The same was true in 2009, and loads of interesting cheap cars disappeared to be replaced by bland uninteresting cheap modern (then) cars. It'll probably be those cars that end up getting traded in this time around!
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I'm happy in my £800 daily. I have no desire to get in debt to buy a car that makes me sad.
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Shortcut
Posted a lot
I won't be there when you cross the road, so always use the Green Cross Code.
Posts: 3,037
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I can see there will be immense pressure on a fairly small section of the market. Cheap small economical but reliable cars will be in huge demand as the barely MOT'd rotboxes either go to scrappage or are scrapped as their owners cant afford the repairs. When money is tight (and it's going to be VERY tight for a large number of people for a long time to come) who needs the stress of over large car payment. Expect all the small Korean stuff to do well. In addition I was ready about the potential swamping of the nearly new market by a wave of repossessions and hand backs on PCP cars, if you add that the off loading of the same sort of cars from rental and also fleets as businesses make staff redundant and the market for nearly news looks pretty over supplied and well under demanded - queue price crash.
To be honest a lot of peoples older smaller projects cars may just cary on. I'm not under any great pressure to offload the Peugeot, it wouldn't bring in enough money to fix any structural problems I may have and it doesn't cost enough to stress what I do have, insurance being almost free, MOT being exempt and road tax also low. The market for these cars that only a strange person can love will probably float along much as it has been. The biggest hits will be the wish fulfilment motors. I agree that for more traditionally "classic" cars the current high prices may well be the last time we see £35K for a Mk1 Mex for fifteen of more years. My partners son is looking to offload an e93 convertible with the the fun 3 litre turbo but prices seem seem to be heading rapidly down every day. Cars where the value is fundamentally nostalgic and the purchase a major financial outlay are not a priority purchase at the moment. The super rich really barely notice the prices of the high end stuff anyway. Even at current prices it's all play money.
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Last Edit: Jun 9, 2020 13:26:04 GMT by Shortcut
This space available to rent. Reach literally dozens of people. Cheap rates!
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Jun 17, 2020 13:25:37 GMT
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Having been to 2 large car auctions over the past couple of days, to answer the question of whether there's a crash coming, I think it's safe to say the answer is a pretty resounding no!
It was a record breaking sale % on both and everything I had my eye on went for vastly over the reserves. Never seen so many prices go so far over the top.
I had my eye on a Nissan GT-R today, which carried a reserve of £29,000. I had a budget set of £32,800. It sold for £39,700 before fees.
It wasn't limited to any particular type of car, it was big prices across the board. New, old, specialist, mainstream. Very strong prices on everything. I went for a 2007 Peugeot 107 as well as I have an eye out for a first car for someone I know, and that went over the top.
2-5 year old BMW M and Audi RS models all going well over reserve. Ex-Fleet Astras, Kias etc all selling strongly. Vans all going over the top.
I predicted no downturn in the specialist and performance markets or the cheaper end of the market, but was surprised by the strength of sales for nearly-new run-of-the-mill stuff
Seems to be the same at the Classic Auctions too.
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Specialist Bodyshop & Fabrication Classic, Retro, Prestige & Custom Small Repairs to Concours Restorations Mechanical Work Vintage to Modern
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Jun 17, 2020 14:17:55 GMT
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I think it's too early to say what the near to medium term future holds with regard to car prices. If you read this summary from the OECD (http://www.oecd.org/economy/united-kingdom-economic-snapshot/), the remaining 6 months of 2020 and the whole of 2021 look to be very economically depressed.
"The COVID-19 crisis has led to a severe economic contraction. GDP is projected to fall by 14% in 2020 if there is a second virus outbreak later in the year (the double-hit scenario). An equally likely single-hit scenario would still see GDP fall sharply by 11.5%. In the double-hit scenario, the unemployment rate is set to more than double to 10% and remain elevated throughout 2021, despite widespread use of furloughing."
Sprinkle in a little Brexit and
"Moreover, risks around the future relationship with the European Union compound COVID-19-related uncertainty, including whether a free trade agreement can be negotiated before the end of 2020. The failure to conclude a trade deal with the European Union by the end of 2020 or put in place alternative arrangements would have a strongly negative effect on trade and jobs."
Exciting times
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Darkspeed
Club Retro Rides Member
Posts: 4,664
Club RR Member Number: 39
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Jun 17, 2020 16:35:36 GMT
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When its raining elephants outside - only an utter fool is going to try and predict with any certainty what the weather will be tomorrow.....
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Jun 21, 2020 11:26:24 GMT
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Hard to say about everything but as someone who is looking for one, the prices of mk1 2dr escorts have actually increased during the pandemic in my opinion. Also cars are selling so fast it’s unbelievable, sometimes within hours of being posted, people paying deposits without seeing the cars, and half the time not even getting listed properly and selling instantly via PM etc. And it’s not like they are all steals (most the time I’m thinking that seems a little expensive and then it instantly sells). Even most the LHD imports are selling before they have even landed.
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1959 Ford 100e Popular Deluxe 1977 Ford escort mk2 2dr Pinto Powered 1997 "classic" Mini Cooper 1.3i 2001 Golf GTI 1.8 20v Turbo
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Jun 22, 2020 12:13:00 GMT
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Jun 22, 2020 12:31:06 GMT
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If its anything like the quality of the pathetic online video transmission / live auction format that they used - the results should be appalling but from what I could make out most of the vehicles offered were selling
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Last Edit: Jun 22, 2020 12:32:31 GMT by Deleted
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Shortcut
Posted a lot
I won't be there when you cross the road, so always use the Green Cross Code.
Posts: 3,037
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Bumping this up...
Just what the f is going on on eBay and Facebook? I'm looking for a cheap parts hauler/tow car and prices seem to be all over the place. It's a mad combination of stupid asking prices plus everything appears to be on MOT extension and sold with about a months ticket and a promise that it "is an easy pass" - WHY NOT JUST TICKET IT THEN!! In addition to the stupid high starting and reserve prices my watch list is a sea of relisted auctions where 200,000 mile sheds failed to sell for £3K and have been relisted for... 3K often twice!
The choice is definitely well down, buyers aren't buying, sellers aren't selling but neither are prices dropping to meet demand.
What the hell is going on?
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Last Edit: Aug 3, 2020 20:29:45 GMT by Shortcut
This space available to rent. Reach literally dozens of people. Cheap rates!
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Bumping this up... Just what the f is going on on eBay and Facebook? I'm looking for a cheap parts hauler/tow car and prices seem to be all over the place. It's a mad combination of stupid asking prices plus everything appears to be on MOT extension and sold with about a months ticket and a promise that it "is an easy pass" - WHY NOT JUST TICKET IT THEN!! In addition to the stupid high starting and reserve prices my watch list is a sea of relisted auctions where 200,000 mile sheds failed to sell for £3K and have been relisted for... 3K often twice! The choice is definitely well down, buyers aren't buying, sellers aren't selling but neither are prices dropping to meet demand. What the hell is going on? Well they don’t get a ticket for two possible reasons, they can’t be bothered, which is fine, they’ll just probably get less interest or they know something is a miss & they’re lying. Imagine that people lying about stuff when they sell a car whatever next
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vitessetony
Club Retro Rides Member
Posts: 1,055
Club RR Member Number: 114
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In response to my own question I think the answer is no (for now at least) case in point is I bought the VXR8 I mentioned at the start of the thread for what I thought was strong money but it is a very good example, long story short, I have just sold it for a profit, which in my car selling history never happens!
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Yeah things seem to be selling for strong prices at the moment. Very few bargains to be had.
My theory is that as car sales are non-taxable and reasonably valuable, people are keeping them as insurance against future financial issues. The real economic hardship is yet to come, unfortunately.
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Ive just had a look on ebay, I could be wrong but there seems to be an increase in show/project/pride and joy type cars on there with prices that would suggest that people arnt ready to sell and are trying to get as much out of them as possible. Having said that, auctions still seem to be doing well and thats something that afew months ago I wouldnt thought would be happening now. Were either still waiting for the price crash, or it simply isnt going to happen.
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cjj
Part of things
Posts: 275
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Bumping this up... Just what the f is going on on eBay and Facebook? I'm looking for a cheap parts hauler/tow car and prices seem to be all over the place. It's a mad combination of stupid asking prices plus everything appears to be on MOT extension and sold with about a months ticket and a promise that it "is an easy pass" - WHY NOT JUST TICKET IT THEN!! In addition to the stupid high starting and reserve prices my watch list is a sea of relisted auctions where 200,000 mile sheds failed to sell for £3K and have been relisted for... 3K often twice! The choice is definitely well down, buyers aren't buying, sellers aren't selling but neither are prices dropping to meet demand. What the hell is going on? It's like that with a lot of stuff. I'm not that far from you and recently sold my top-spec Hybrid SUV for under £4k. There were worse examples up for twice that price with lower spec. Strangely enough, pretty much every single shred of interest came from non-British ethnic people, with most interest being Eastern European/African people, bar one elderly guy. It struck me how strange some of our national car-buying can be, where the buying habits and interests in this country are, culturally, quite messed up. People work very much on "newer is better" or false impressions of reliability (e.g VW) over here. I find it utterly bizarre how much old (but not retro) VWs sell for here considering their reliability/cost-to-keep/build quality. I think the general jist is that the market here is daft at the best of times. I'm sure the prices of most Subarus fluctuate between £500 and £5000 on a weekly basis.
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Well mk2 Golfs & Peugeot 205's (I do a daily check as have saved searches) are doing daft money since Covid. Asked prices are getting on for double compared to earlier this year.
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The amount of high mileage, poor condition c**p marked up for silly money round my way (South East/Central South) has always been staggering and it's been that way for quite some time, way before COVID-19. I spent months looking for a small/cheap daily that wasn't a total shed, around the £1k mark last year and didn't find squat. I accept that car prices are subject to 'the market' but I'd rather get the bus than get mugged off.
I encountered dealers who, without hesitation, would suggest that (for example) £2000 for a 15 year old povvo Ford Fiesta was a bargain as well as private sellers who thought that because their old nail was worth £x in the most recent round of scrappage, that it was reasonable to ask the same on the private market and then got offended when I poked holes in their assertion.
Maybe it's just me being unreasonable/a tightarse but the BoE inflation calculator show that as the equivalent of spending £1000 on a 1980 Fiesta in 1995. I was there, and they were nowhere near that expensive. The prices are just detached from reality these days, in my opinion, naturally.
Annoyingly, I'm still after a small, cheap, good condition daily but I think there will be an increase in demand for cheap small cars in the (highly likely) economic mess heading our way over the coming months, so anyone looking for anything resembling a bargain, good condition, older small car will likely find themselves over a barrel.
Or on a bus.
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Shortcut
Posted a lot
I won't be there when you cross the road, so always use the Green Cross Code.
Posts: 3,037
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Weirdly I'm looking for the opposite. A barge with a tow bar. All the usual suspects (SAAB, Volvo, Merc, Mondeo even) get hit with higher tax as they aren't exactly eco friendly and yet people still want over 2K for a car that's been to Alpha Centauri and back... twice, will cost £300 a year to tax and has 36 seconds MOT left; all while hitting me up for 25mpg! In weird desperation I'm looking at an Alfa 159 with a very Alfa unfriendly 176K (JTD) on the clock as it actually seems somewhat reasonable (£995) although I'm fairly certain it's unlikely to make it down my driveway reliably.
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Last Edit: Aug 4, 2020 11:53:06 GMT by Shortcut
This space available to rent. Reach literally dozens of people. Cheap rates!
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