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Nov 16, 2014 19:27:55 GMT
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Anyone remember the late 80's and Yuppie era ? Morris Minors were fetching £7-10000, E Types sometimes over £100,000 and so on. Speculators bought everything they could think of as an "investment". At work (H M Inspector of Taxes) we get said Yuppies having things like crates of fine wines, gold bars, classic cars etc as bonuses to get around paying tax on the bonus. Now the *ankers (put a b or w depending on your opinion of them) simply give themselves £1,000,000 bonuses instead. I remember it well. I remember equally well the crash in the very early 90s. I have my suspicions that a similar crash is not that far away and for the same reasons. There are investment cars and there are enthusiast cars. There is a limited crossover. When the investors get into the enthusiast market, it doesn't bode well in the long term for investors or, in the short term for enthusiasts. I think there are currently too many so called investor enthusiasts in the market. I see on many forums many threads where owners are consistently talking up the values of their cars. The same thing happened in real classic car meetings back in the late 80s. People are buying cars not purely because they want to own and enjoy the car and hopefully won't lose too much on it, but because they expect it to rise significantly in value. It'll all end in tears. I hope. Why on earth would you hope/want the very thing you are passionate about, to fall flat on its face, makes no sense at all.
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Nov 16, 2014 20:02:11 GMT
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You obviously don't remember the early 90s crash in classic car values and the aftermath?
Nobody wants the classic car movement to "fall flat on its face", but I certainly don't want it ruined by the "know the price of everything and the value of nothing" mob.
My fear is that the market - certainly at the top end and possibly filtering down to the medium level - is beginning to look like that might happen again.
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duncanmartin
Club Retro Rides Member
Out of retro ownership
Posts: 1,320
Club RR Member Number: 70
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Nov 16, 2014 20:12:51 GMT
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Why on earth would you hope/want the very thing you are passionate about, to fall flat on its face, makes no sense at all. Because ultimately, it's not the scene that we're into that will fall on its face, but that of people who are looking for an investment that will minimise their tax liability and maximise the return. For the most part, they won't care if new legislation means that running a (modified) classic becomes more difficult, because they don't drive the cars. So if the bubble bursts, then hopefully some seriously tasty cars will get owners who appreciated them and use them. I think that makes complete sense.
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slomoshun
Part of things
Going forward one nut and bolt at a time
Posts: 319
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Nov 16, 2014 20:13:40 GMT
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Anything now as value and internet plays its part in the hype. As forum member said once run of the mill cars have turned full circle and become collectable through nostalgia and a desire to own something with character and that word < retro > can in certain circles bump up a price out of our league leaving us true but often penniless enthusiasts sitting on the fence.
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Traction and horsepower is nearing perfection
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Nov 16, 2014 20:24:47 GMT
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You obviously don't remember the early 90s crash in classic car values and the aftermath? Nobody wants the classic car movement to "fall flat on its face", but I certainly don't want it ruined by the "know the price of everything and the value of nothing" mob. My fear is that the market - certainly at the top end and possibly filtering down to the medium level - is beginning to look like that might happen again. I certainly do remember the 90's & the 80's & the 70's for that matter & this has always happened. More the merrier I say & as I have said many times before, the only guy who moans about an RS Ford (for example) being 20k, is the guy who hasn't got one, I myself have & whilst it stands me at about 4K, cos I've owned it many yrs, if the market says it's worth 20, then bring it on & then some.
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Nov 16, 2014 20:55:35 GMT
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The last time cars went Ballistic, it was the last rescission, The bubble will burst, when the last rescission ended, My brother in law bought a 98 point Dino 246s for 18k, it had been restored at Marinello Concessionaries and came with receipts for 95k only a year earlier, I bet that stung!!!!!!!! I recall back in 1989/90 a classic car dealer (they were also a main dealer too) in Chiswick asking £125k!, for a 246GTS. It sold too.
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Still learning...still spending...still breaking things!
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Nov 16, 2014 21:08:12 GMT
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Personally, I'm all for classic cars increasing in price/value, after all the bigger the classic scene becomes there's simply less cars to go around. The issue I have with massive increases in values in short time spans, say 3-5 years is that one can't help thinking it's investors getting in on the scene for short term gains, thus forcing the real enthusiasts to pay up or do without. Life eh?
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Still learning...still spending...still breaking things!
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Nov 16, 2014 21:13:38 GMT
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Everyone is quoting the early 90's & yes the classic market crashed, but so did pretty much everything else. We are in an entirely different position now. The prices went mental at the end of the 80's fuelled by massive growth in the economy etc, then interest rates climbed & climbed, until they hit 16% Obviously then it all came crashing down. Now we have interest rates of basically less than 1%, so investors want to find something else to put their money into. Whilst ever the interest rate is so low, classic car prices WILL stay buoyant.
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Nov 16, 2014 21:21:38 GMT
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Whilst ever the interest rate is so low, classic car prices WILL stay buoyant. You can bet your bottom dollar that interests rates won't stay @ 1%. It's only a matter of time, of course the big question is, how long.
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Still learning...still spending...still breaking things!
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Nov 17, 2014 12:15:38 GMT
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It has been going on for years, rise and fall. I inhereted a Ferrari Daytona that I immediately sold in 2006. It was restored and later featured on Top Gear. In its life I think it had been bought for £450kish in 1988 by a fraudster, sold to my dad for £70kish by a dealer in 2001, mistreated by him and sold by me for £70k in 2006, restored by its current owner and featured on Top Gear, now worth ? ? ? LOTS! So prices of classics have gone up in times of speculation, and down in times of recession. We're in a weird fake boom at the moment, and people are definitely speculating...
Charlie
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Last Edit: Nov 17, 2014 12:16:39 GMT by charlie
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Nov 17, 2014 12:34:14 GMT
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There is definitely investment and speculation going on at the top end : www.historicautomobilegroup.comHAGI actually have a Porsche price index and it has been steadily rising, you could in fact have beaten the main investment markets if you'd taken your money and invested in Porsches for the last ten years. Obviously this is driving some of the price rise in Porsches, but so has general desirability, age, media exposure and brand value (the price of older Bugattis went up when they released the Veyron etc.). I wanted to buy a Porsche 912 in about 2004 for about £2,500-3,000k (needing work), I couldn't quite afford it then, and I can't quite afford one now either ... Same is kind of true of BMW 2002. It is always interesting what cars go up in price rapidly ... I've always been a believer in the bedroom poster principle, if a kid had the car on his wall and he gets to be old enough to drive and then old enough to afford one, the prices will start to rise. So buy your early WRXs and Evos now. Ford Focus RS will be another when it finally hit bottom dollar, that is the time to buy I think. I'm still waiting for the boom in the Datsun Sunny market
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eternaloptimist
Posted a lot
Too many projects, not enough time or space...
Posts: 2,578
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Nov 17, 2014 14:10:08 GMT
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Whilst ever the interest rate is so low, classic car prices WILL stay buoyant. You can bet your bottom dollar that interests rates won't stay @ 1%. It's only a matter of time, of course the big question is, how long. Long term base interest rates are unlikely to be much higher than 5%. It will be quite a few years before they go higher than 3%. Profit made on cars remains tax free - so investors (and there are plenty of people with pots of cash they like to invest) will continue to pay what seems like stupid money for desirable cars. Sometimes to store, sometimes just to look at, sometimes to race (go and look at the money being spent on classics at Goodwood) There are still plenty of entry level classics available at sensible money. At the top end, fashion, sentiment, rarity, and provenance will act to drive price up or down in cars as it does art, property, jewellery etc.
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XC70, VW split screen crew cab, Standard Ten
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Nov 17, 2014 14:23:34 GMT
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At the top end, fashion, sentiment, rarity, and provenance will act to drive price up or down in cars as it does art, property, jewellery etc. Yup. That is true of any object, time + provenance + desirability = value, basically. From cars to watches to skateboards.
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